Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Oil & Gas Stock Index (XOI) - Temp Low »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 24, 2020

The Oil & Gas Stock Index closing today at 60352 is immediately trading down about 52% for the year from last year's settlement of 127055. Up to this moment in time, this market has been declining for 4 months. This price action here in October is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 57240 intraday yet it is trading at least below last month's close of 60823.

The historical perspective in the Oil & Gas Stock Index included a rally from 2003 moving into a major high for 2014, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2016 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 86847. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 01/01 from 2014, which tends to warn that the 2014 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2016 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.

This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a bearish position with important overhead system resistance whereas we also remain is a bearish position on the monthly and weekly levels.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Oil & Gas Stock Index, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 61161 and support forming below at 60309. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of September 28th at 57240, which was down 7 weeks from the high made back during the week of August 10th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 59898. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

Interestingly, the New Gld has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in March.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 95630 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 129844 back during January. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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