Replies to post #15982 on American Energy Production Inc(fka AENP)

[mcquade72]

Wow I would certainly enjoy the benefits of some of those projections. I must say very informative post. I certainly hope it comes to fruition. I think the big jump will be when they can actually give us shareholders the real numbers on all the wells and projects. I think when the numbers hit we run fast and furious.


McQ

[gratli1028]

Whoa......thank you very much for that DD and well thought out and written post of future love for us.

Thank you.
Glenda

[ctb]

Thank you for your reasoned analysis falconer.

[mrditbme]

Someone who looks out into the future is a person I can relate too. I agree no dividends in '07. Perhaps by mid '08 or '09 we could start to see some. I invest for the long hard slog whose fare is time and money. Down the road a 5-10% dividend while protecting the ownership of the shares has been my goal and it is this course that I think the company is on. With the CEO's millions of shares it would also be of personal benefit to him to achieve this goal also. It is my goal to keep this investment and pass it on to my family. Thanks for the projections.

[RedShoulder]

An excellent AMEP DD post, your range of figures encompass my own at the low end of yours, but I was being very conservative, thanks for sharing your DD figures falconer. I hope you DD does indeed stimulate others to calculate their own DD figures.

FWIW, I am using in my personal DD a very conservative $2 Million in annual revenues per new Barnett horizontal well; but I expecting much more if the Pagett and Hart leases are indeed sitting on top of highly productive Barnett Shale and Marble Falls gas and oil formations. Because AMEP choose to drill it's next well, the Padgett #12 on it's 7,000 acres of Barnett in a close offset to the Padgett #11, logic dictates that they must be very happy with what they are seeing out of the Padgett #11 so far; if not they could have drilled elsewhere on the 7,000 acres, including the highly productive Hart lease, where AMEP already has had vertical success in the Barnett and the Marble Falls.

The Padgett #12 will also be AMEP's first horizontal. I am figuring a horizontal will be 3-5 times more productive than a vertical in close off-set. So what ever the Padgett #11 produces, I am estimating a 3 times increase factor for the off-set horizontal Padgett #12. I am speculating that AMEP will continue to drill the Padgett lease if they are happy with the results of the Padgett #12.

I am expecting AMEP to start releasing well PRs after the coming BDC proxy is voted 'FOR’.

Thanks for sharing your DD falconer,
2007 does look to be AMEP’s first cash flow positive and profitable year.
...hawk

[Mytrade]

Great Post falconer66a Your post 15982 was a great read and then to top it off was a post from Greeneyedhawk. I think we saw the last of the lows and people will be scrambling to get in on this gem when they see the price movement today if they havent bought in yet. This is dirt cheap and I am out of extra cash. Low volume will lead to higher prices and a slow steady release of news will top it off after the BDC is done with end of January hopefully.
FRANK from Newburgh NY.

[doc726]

Falconer...Very concise and factual. Thanks for the input

[RJ Trotts]

thanks Falcon for sharing....here's to a great UPcoming year...RJ

[croesusjr]

Three questions in relation to Falconer's post:

Why will eliminating the BDC election so dramatically accelerate the rate of drilling in 2007 vs. what they've achieved to date?

How can you assume the Challenger rig will be deployed anytime soon?

Why is it your opinion that the Barnett leases and the rigs are not included in the most recent NAV calculation? As I understand it, NAV was calculated to reflect "fair value" as of 12/31/05 and additional investments in 2006 should be included at least at cost.

Thanks! I want to believe...

[etatsdilos]

"AMEP share prices toward the end of the decade and into the next are likely to approach or exceed $10 per share."

Those were the days.