An excellent AMEP DD post, your range of figures encompass my own at the low end of yours, but I was being very conservative, thanks for sharing your DD figures falconer. I hope you DD does indeed stimulate others to calculate their own DD figures.
FWIW, I am using in my personal DD a very conservative $2 Million in annual revenues per new Barnett horizontal well; but I expecting much more if the Pagett and Hart leases are indeed sitting on top of highly productive Barnett Shale and Marble Falls gas and oil formations. Because AMEP choose to drill it's next well, the Padgett #12 on it's 7,000 acres of Barnett in a close offset to the Padgett #11, logic dictates that they must be very happy with what they are seeing out of the Padgett #11 so far; if not they could have drilled elsewhere on the 7,000 acres, including the highly productive Hart lease, where AMEP already has had vertical success in the Barnett and the Marble Falls.
The Padgett #12 will also be AMEP's first horizontal. I am figuring a horizontal will be 3-5 times more productive than a vertical in close off-set. So what ever the Padgett #11 produces, I am estimating a 3 times increase factor for the off-set horizontal Padgett #12. I am speculating that AMEP will continue to drill the Padgett lease if they are happy with the results of the Padgett #12.
I am expecting AMEP to start releasing well PRs after the coming BDC proxy is voted 'FOR’.
Thanks for sharing your DD falconer,
2007 does look to be AMEP’s first cash flow positive and profitable year.
...hawk
