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Replies to post #5030 on Commodity Futures Trading
09/13/20 9:05 AM
The Wheat CBT Futures closing today at 5420 is immediately trading down about 2.97% for the year from last year's settlement of 5586. At present, this market has been rising for 2 months going into September reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. yet it is trading below last month's close of 5522.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.
While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2008 moving into a major low in 2016, the market has bounced back for the last 4 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Wheat CBT Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 5424 and support forming below at 5280. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 31st at 5684, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 22nd. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a sharp move of .0506% in a stark panic type decline.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of August 31st has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 5516 made back during the week of July 13th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of June 1st. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 4710 made the week of June 22nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for three months. Since that low made in April, the market has rallied for 4 months. However, we are trading below last month's low of 3958, warning that a month-end closing beneath this level will signal a reversal of trend to the downside is starting to unfold. Meanwhile, the past four months has witnessed a rally of 555% percent. A month-end closing below 3958 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 4378 to maintain a near-term upward rally.
This market is trading below that high of January which was 5924 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 4591 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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