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Wheat CBT Futures (W) - Temp High »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 29, 2020

Wheat CBT Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 5486 is immediately trading down about 1.79% for the year from last year's settlement of 5586. Factually, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's close of 5312.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2008 moving into a major low in 2016, the market has bounced back for the last 4 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Wheat CBT Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 5420.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 24th at 5554, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 22nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 5554 to 5240. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 24th reaching 5554 has exceeded the previous high of 5516 made back during the week of July 13th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of February for one month. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 4 months. Meanwhile, the past four months has witnessed a rally of 38% percent. A month-end closing below 2840 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 3061 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

This market is trading below that high of January which was 5924 by more than 5 percent. Critical support still underlies this market at 4591 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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