Thank you antihama for your question.
That perhaps as many as 55-60 patients will become 5(+) years survivors is simply based on my opinion that the SNO update probably somewhat underestimated the number of patients who will survive 58.4 months and beyond.
The November 2018 SNO estimate was based on a refresh that was probably conducted months earlier and may not have yet fully included the superior survival potential of the last 1/3 of the trial (approximately 108 patients).
That last contingent of 108 included 42 post 36(+) months survivors which represents 38.9% of that contingent. Highlighting the success of the last 108 enrolled patients, only a maximum of about 51 of the first 223 patients (22.9%) became post 36(+) months survivors.
I am certain that the authors of the SNO update were fully aware of the survival potential of the last contingent since at the time of the refresh I am guessing that the last 108 were already on trial for at least 30-42 months (if not a few months more).
However, I am guessing that the SNO had no choice but to base their estimate for future survival of that last successful group on the survival pattern demonstrated by the previously enrolled contingent of 223 patients.
If that is correct, I believe that more than 50 patients (55-60) will end up surviving past 58.4 months. In fact, the last group of 108 will most likely demonstrate a much better survival capacity than did the first 223 enrolled patients whose relatively inferior post 36 months survival record had to be employed for the SNO update, leading to a moderate underestimation of the long term survival of the entire trial. JMHO.
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