Replies to post #283472 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[studythosestocks]

Thank you G for your insight:

Outcome ...

Settlement: 0.00% (-100%)

Any settlement makes sense (if any) with vacatur only. But vacatur based on what? Singer's briefs? If it is good for vacatur it should be good for win ... But let's accept the vacatur (with settlement). It will trigger a GIA (maybe everywhere) because nobody will pay a reasonable amount for the US with existing possibility that somebody will win a new case (about MARINE) and the "pending" R-IT case ...

The settlement is not about money but about timing (market entry). Meanwhile I do not have the details of the TEVA and Apotex settlements, I am 99.9% sure Amarin could not settle an earlier entry for Hikma (or Reddy) than for T & A. (I mean If Hikma want anything before August 2029, T&A will get it also.)

Furthermore: any (most of the) business decision should be the best interest and is not the most safety. As I know not all of the court cases ended by settlement. Make it short: we bought Amarin shares and not government bonds ...

Remand: 0.01%

I see too many errors in the DC Order ... furthermore a remand will trigger - with 100% possibility, independently from the new DC Order - a new appeal.

I agree completely G! Spot on IMO!

We differ a little on the Affirmation or Reversal and I tend to be more pessimistic just in the nature of Appeals. I'll try and get my thoughts out next Saturday as I should be off for Independence Day. Take care and always appreciate your insight.

[circuitcity]

Final bet, no change? Kidding. Thanks for analysis, like always.

[Crikker]

Great analysis

[mrmainstreet]

Thanks HDG, appreciate you laying out your opinion with reasoning.

[circuitcity]

Hdg,

You seems contradictory between settlement and reversal.

You said let us accept vacate in settlement: 1) it will trigger gia, so? JT has been saying gia all along and you are not against gia either, right? You said it is a business decision between bo offering and gia; 2) you then said high possibility for a new case loss against another generic in another DC, but this is not what you said in reversal (you said in reversal based on four documents, 75% to be reversed); 3) and additional comment on 2) any new case will take at least 30 month, right? This leads me to say patent litigation risk is always there, so it is not guaranteed to trigger a gia everywhere per you say.

I begin to wonder how did they manage to settle with apotex? No delay at all if any generic enter?

[Biobillionair]

G-

Any settlement makes sense (if any) with vacatur only. But vacatur based on what? Singer's briefs? If it is good for vacatur it should be good for win ... But let's accept the vacatur (with settlement). It will trigger a GIA (maybe everywhere) because nobody will pay a reasonable amount for the US with existing possibility that somebody will win a new case (about MARINE) and the "pending" R-IT case ...

Put down the Hungarian crackpipe.

Any settlement makes sense (if any) with vacatur only.

Obviously, yes.

If it is good for vacatur it should be good for win

Not even close...you forget Judges can screw up. Settlements are structured between two parties that resolve their conflict.

It will trigger a GIA (maybe everywhere) because nobody will pay a reasonable amount for the US with existing possibility that somebody will win a new case (about MARINE) and the "pending" R-IT case

No. A settlement affirms strength of patents and makes bringing future cases harder.

If I’m wrong hopefully one of the board attorneys can correct me, but I’m likely 100% right regarding vacatur & settlement structures.

BB