Thanks Doc, I understand... the issue is that they didn’t write “more likely than not” but instead wrote “not more likely than not”... so given that, they think it’s more likely that they will end up paying something than not, not that it’s not more likely than not that they will not pay, lol. :)
DL, I believe you have decoded the riddle correctly. The fact that they saw fit to include such an obvious monstrosity in a PR signals an amused contempt for its readers.