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Replies to post #1878 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
06/20/20 8:04 AM
The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 178470 is immediately trading down about 0.41% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the long-term level is still positive. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was also Bullish along with the Monthly and Yearly levels indicating and overall positive stance. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's settlement, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.
Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.
PIVOT POINTS
Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 175766 and resistance at 179560 and 182183 for this next trading session. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 176090 and 176566. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 179660 182166. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.
OVERVIEW ANALYSIS
The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 180300 and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains positive on our system indicators still with some overhead resistance. This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 189500. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.
We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 179075 settling at 175080 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 180166 which we exceeded intraday; however, the market was unable to sustain that move and it closed back under this indicator. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 181300. Now this immediate indicator in the current trading session, is above the current close offering projected resistance. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to exceed 181300 during the next session warns the upward momentum may be lost and a retest of support becomes possible.
Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 180166
Previous... 179075
Tomorrow... 181300
Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 174600
Weekly ....... 173567
Monthly ...... 139783
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767
Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.
As of now, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 116300 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.
As of now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 9014 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.
RECREATING TIME
Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.
Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 19th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.
We closed the previous month at 149730which has moved up from the previous month which wasbearish. The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 138540 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 121340.
END OF QUARTER
The market is trading quite strong above our first projected target which rests at 144690. The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 220233. The projected technical support resides at 103350. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 238392. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 141540 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 139640. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains moderately bullish for now yet the weekly level is also somewhat bullish. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is a bit further from the market right now. This resides at 138540 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this Reversal will signal a sharp decline to retest of support is likely. Still, we do see underlying support forming in the 155540
Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 141540 and 138540.
BROADER OVERVIEW
While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.
This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.
DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
Now, turning to our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday highs for the past 4 days in price. The low on our Energy Model took place 06/18/2020. Therefore, this immediate rally may prove to be short-term unless this model begins to create new historic highs.
OVERALL TREND
The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the quarterly short-term level of our momentum model yet neutral on the trend indicatorThe NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's low leaving that as an 1 year high. while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.
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