Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures - WARNING PRESSING LOWER »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 13, 2020

The NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today at 174820 is immediately trading down about 2.44% for the year from last year's settlement of 179210. We did elect two Daily Bearish Reversals today. Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level, however, shows that the last Reversal to be elected was Bearish back on Wed. Jan. 1, 2020. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish showing that the long-term level is still positive. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was also Bullish along with the Monthly and Yearly levels indicating and overall positive stance. So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's settlement, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.


Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 176363, 176433, and 179316 for this next trading session. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 175730, 176033, 178460, 180033. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The NY Silver COMEX Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level plunging significantly again by 5.00%. A break of today's low of 174700 during the next trading session will warn of a potential serious decline ahead. This market has declined for 2 trading days which has been a sharp decline of 5.08%. In the process, we have elected one Daily Bearish Reversal which previously stood at 176740. Don't forget that a Daily Bearish only indicates a lower low in the next trading session. The Forecast Array suggests possible days for lows.

The Uptrend Line from the last low created at 173750 tied to the secondary low made on 06/11 remains as resistance standing at 176562. Only getting above this level on a sustained closing basis will signal a rally to the upside.

Currently, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bullish.

The Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 170025 which we are trading above as of this session's closing at 174820. This typically warns that if we hold this level intraday, then the sell-off has not yet breached key technical support. Of course, a closing beneath this number will imply a sharp decline is possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 169800 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -176567
Weekly ....... 172417
Monthly ...... 139783
Quarterly .... -152483
Yearly ....... 139767

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

At the moment, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 116300 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Currently, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 2923 and an end of week closing above this level will be a buy signal for now. At the moment, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 9014 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 12th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

We closed the previous month at 149730which has moved up from the previous month which wasbearish. The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 138540 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 121340.

END OF QUARTER

The market is trading quite strong above our first projected target which rests at 144690. The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 220233. The projected technical support resides at 103350. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 238392. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 141540 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 139640. Immediately, the market is somewhat bearish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains moderately bullish for now yet the weekly level is also somewhat bullish. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is a bit further from the market right now. This resides at 138540 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this Reversal will signal a sharp decline to retest of support is likely. Still, we do see underlying support forming in the 155540

Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 141540 and 138540.

BROADER OVERVIEW

While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2011 moving into a major low in 2018, the market has bounced back for the last 2 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2016.


This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 19%.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


Turning to our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Energy Models are still making higher highs. This implies that any correction may hold important underlying support rather than a change in the broader trend on this level.

OVERALL TREND

The NY Silver COMEX Futures is in bearish position on the quarterly short-term level of our momentum model yet neutral on the trend indicatorThe NY Silver COMEX Futures has penetrated last year's low leaving that as an 1 year high. while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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