Replies to post #286676 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[ososilver]

absolutely brilliant WOW!

[Gus1212]

Alphapuppy - Thank you so much for putting this together.

Just sent it out to all my people - except One LOL
I look like the sky is falling to him LOL --


Thanks again

[photonic5]

You’re on the record. Great analytic work. Thanks for sharing in detail.

[snoopycomic]

Great analysis. If some people don’t have the patience at least watch the last five minutes.

[X Master]

I’m betting your 100% correct. Thanks for the analysis.

[sukus]

Great analysis and insights. Thanks for sharing Alphapuppy.

[maverick_1]

Thanks Alphapuppy for spending your weekend in re visiting your model, sharing your modeling assumptions, and most especially for making the enlightening youtube.

Your sharing of your unabashedly bold and professional viewpoint of DCVax L destined to be shortly the new STD of Care adds a major piece de la resistance to the upcomng
Summer Fireworks!

From Alan Alda

“When I got up to speak, I said, 'I only have three minutes, so I thought I'd give the secret to life.

It's three words: Adapt, adjust, and revise.'

DIFFERENT STROKES FOR DIFFERENT FOLKS

[ATLnsider]

Thank you alphapuppy!

[pgsd]

Excellent work, thank you for sharing your analysis.

[CassieW]

Thank you so much for this. Incredible, detailed work!

[jammyjames]

Nice censors! Lol

[Looking4aprofit]

alphapuppy,
Thanks for sharing your analysis and hard work.
Great stuff! DCVax L will not only help the patients but profit us loyal shareholders!

[eagle8]

alphapuppy, thank you for all the work you have done.
It's a very clear explanation about a very important subject, PFS.
Was this the first homerun LP was talking about ?
I hope so !

Thanks again and best to you.

[Bigmahalo]

So.... Good! Thank you.

[Kam8]

Great post. Thanks alot

[scotty3371]

That's pretty good, considering that data points you had.

[CaptainObvious]

Excellent!

[john1045]

Alphapuppy, great analysis on DCVax-L Phase III trial nearing top line data being published within next 30-40 days. You did an outstanding job on this!

Message in reply to:

Check out the video regarding The progression free survival modeling that I completed a number of years ago.

I recently re-reviewed it and created this video. This is why I remain long in this stock.

I am going on the record that the top line will be a significantly positive result.

[kfa670]

Thank you Alpha.

Your work instills much confidence. Especially in regards to the primary endpoint

[StockFollower]

Excellent!! Thank you Alphapuppy for taking the time to do this anaylsis!

SF

[biosectinvestor]

Thanks Alpha! Great job!

[abc1212]

Alphapuppy, many thanks for the excellent work.

Has instilled even more confidence in DCVax being a groundbreaking success.

[tryn2]

Great work alpha....!!! Sent this out to all my peeps.. (-:

[Doc logic]

alphapuppy,

Your modeling reinforces the comments made made not all that long ago about the majority of remaining survivors not having PFS evented at that time. This analysis also supports the reason why NWBO mentioned Bohsie's/Barunuuk's PFS analysis quite a while ago. Thanks and best wishes.

[FloatServe]

Alphapuppy- You are one of the posters that I enjoy the intelligent analysis and input you provide. Fantastic work.

I was wondering in your modeling, if there was a way to play with the control numbers. For instance, is there a way to adjust the control group in order to see what a 15-20% improvement would yield for a curve and Values?

Don’t bother if it’s too much work, just curious from a conservative analysis. Regardless, thank you for all that you’ve provided! Your impact is tremendous!

[sentiment_stocks]

alpha puppy... thank you for your very detailed analysis of the PFS arm. I liked the way you showed your work, as opposed to just dry words on a page.

You know, one little detail regarding the IMUC control arm that you used to represent the control arm in the DCVax trial... the control arm in the IMUC trial received autologous monocytes (basically unactivated dendritic cells) as their control-arm treatment. This means that the control arm you compared DCVax-L to received an added boost, if you will, which the DCVax-L control arm did not.

Dendritic Cell Immunotherapy Promising in HLA-A2-Positive Glioblastoma
An unexpected increase was reported for immune response in some control patients after treatment with unincubated dendritic cells, possibly suggesting that activated dendritic cells without peptide loading is immunologically active, Dr. Yu noted. The phase III trial uses autologous monocytes instead of activated dendritic cells, as a control-arm treatment.

https://www.cancernetwork.com/sno-2015/dendritic-cell-immunotherapy-promising-hla-a2-positive-glioblastoma

Just an interesting side-note.

[Lykiri]

alphapuppy,

thank you for your analysis of the PFS arm!

One question: why 110 patients in your placebo group and 221 patients in your treatment group and not the real numbers? (99 placebo patients and 232 treatment patients in the DCVax-L trial)

[BioAddict]

Thanks for that AlhpaPuppy!

[Poor Man -]

Really Brilliant.

Rarely do I read anything on this board that is this insightful.

And like any complex idea, when it’s explained well it’s actually easy to follow even for someone not in the field.

Thanks!

[ilovetech]

Alpha, thank you for your contribution!

ILT

[H2R]

That's one well thought out model. The conclusion on PFS, i.e. before any possible cross over counfoundment, is quite a telling graph. The amount of data on that long a trial, past the 36 months mark, is going to hopefully bolster that picture. My hat off to you sir!

Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!

[antihama]

Alphapuppy, thanks for posting this. I do have one stupid Q and I assume I know the answer but my Mamma thought never to assume (which I ignore quite often). In the video you have a picture showing the alpha and P values for various stat calculations for PFS w the P values way way under the alpha. The alphas you show are 0.05 for PFS but if PFS is a co primary endpoint along w OS as we learned from Dr Bosch, the alpha would be ~.025 or .02 (note there used to be discussion on this board that the alpha for PFS was .02 and for OS .03). I assume whatever alpha you have doesn't enter into the actual calculation, it's just an arbitrary value that the p value has to slide under but can you confirm that assumption is true for the less statistically inclined? Thanks.