alm2, Well thought out post. My view is the greatest risks are:
1. A decision to GIA. No BO means most likely AMRN will attempt to JV
Europe or sell rights to Europe...in either case, the proceeds will
most likely be used to acquire new product for the US sales force to
sell...especially if an appeal results in a loss for AMRN.
2. John Thero's continued leadership. The share price tells the story.
In my opinion, AMRN should have been sold some time ago. It has not.
JT is not the person to be the face for Vascepa. Maybe he can still
work out a BO...I fear if he does not he will fail in his attempt to
make Vascepa a super-blockbuster and AMRN a BP. Let BP buy AMRN, reap
the benefits of distributing Vascepa in Europe and the ROW, and best
decide (with greater resources available) how to proceed in the US.
3. An appeals court loss. If generics launch a generic Vascepa, what
does JT do with the 800 sales reps? Does he acquire new products for
them to sell? At least if BP acquires AMRN maybe some of them will
get absorbed by the BP and they will be trained in other products for
BP. If you were one of those reps would you plan to stick around
any longer than you would need to? Will reps be motivated now?