Replies to post #267474 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rosemountbomber]

"Those who want to stay long are placing their bets on the appeal being won - my money is staying in on this one "

At the current price yes. If by some wild fluke we were trading at say $16 before appeal verdict, risk/reward would dictate exiting or getting insurance (usually too expensive) at least for me anyways.

[ziploc_1]

alm...thank you for your thoughtful post...I was especially struck by your last paragraph..."And on the downside...losing - will the share price go much lower - - not a great deal...there’s still some value in there."

It's not as though, if we lose, we lose it all... we DON'T LOSE IT ALL ....Amarin is hurt badly for sure...but AMARIN doesn't go away and "THERE'S STILL SOME VALUE IN THERE"...and the share price won't go much lower...I still think that, with a 50:50 chance of winning, this remains, as JL has said in the past, an "ASYMMETRIC BET"

[jessellivermore]

alm2....

I'm going to say it..The bet is the Appellate court is going to reverse Du and this is an asymmetric bet going the right direction unlike the district decision which was an asymmetrical bet going the wrong direction. There is no point in hedging here...the PPS will not go under $4 and will recover to a higher level than it is right now..Even on the remote chance Du will not be reversed.

IMO..The Appellate will reverse Du's judgement not because she made errors of fact. Not for secondary conditions which were ignored.and not because she used incorrect procedure.

She will be reversed for the stone cold fact her decision can not hold up because it induces infringement on Amarin's patents..She will be hung by her own reasoning...By agreeing generics using Vascepa for over twelve weeks would constitute indirect infringement by inducement. The thread here is generics can not legally use Vascpa for the R-I indication but only legally for the Marine indication....and then she does not understand that her decision leads inevitably to the same place...

Generics don't really care about the MARINE label...It is small and vague..The generics are after the the Dec 2019 post R-I label...Which could turn out to be the biggest drug in the world..The fact is the generics can get this simply by "Off labeling"..for the post R-I label. But there is a catch here and that is Judge Du has already said that if the Generics use Vascepa for the R-I indication, then they are indirectly infringing on Amarin's patents by inducement..So by her own reasoning her decision can not stand as the court would be inducing infringement on Amarin's valid R-I patents.

":>) JL

[couldbebetter]

alm2, Well thought out post. My view is the greatest risks are:

1. A decision to GIA. No BO means most likely AMRN will attempt to JV
Europe or sell rights to Europe...in either case, the proceeds will
most likely be used to acquire new product for the US sales force to
sell...especially if an appeal results in a loss for AMRN.

2. John Thero's continued leadership. The share price tells the story.
In my opinion, AMRN should have been sold some time ago. It has not.
JT is not the person to be the face for Vascepa. Maybe he can still
work out a BO...I fear if he does not he will fail in his attempt to
make Vascepa a super-blockbuster and AMRN a BP. Let BP buy AMRN, reap
the benefits of distributing Vascepa in Europe and the ROW, and best
decide (with greater resources available) how to proceed in the US.

3. An appeals court loss. If generics launch a generic Vascepa, what
does JT do with the 800 sales reps? Does he acquire new products for
them to sell? At least if BP acquires AMRN maybe some of them will
get absorbed by the BP and they will be trained in other products for
BP. If you were one of those reps would you plan to stick around
any longer than you would need to? Will reps be motivated now?