Replies to post #277661 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Leprecon7777]

The model was fitted to the only long-term data NWBO provided... namely the survival for the top 100 was 58.4 months. Using this information, the model yielded a blended survival of approximately 16% at 60-months.

Based on the modest improvement seen at 36-months between the Journal update and the SNO update, my expectation is the the blended Survival at 60-months will be closer to 18% and possibly as high as 20%. So to answer your question, yes it is possible the model is slightly overstating the deaths.

With that said, I do find it troublesome that NWBO has not provided the 60-month survival curve and the number of alive particularly since the company has been touting the survival "tail".

Ref:
https://nwbio.com/updated-interim-data-from-phase-3-trial-of-dcvax-l-for-glioblastoma/

[skitahoe]

I believe the last time we had a firm number of surviving patients all were alive at roughly 36 months, or more. I know we've been estimating that somewhere between 50 and 70 of them remain alive, but I'd not be at all surprised if very few of those who made it to 36 months or more have passed on since than. I believe that the count may just be high in the 70's. Remember when our latest patient to enter the trial was 36 months in, far more were 60 or more months in, and I have a feeling that if you make it 5 years, your odds of reaching 10 years are really pretty good.

Old age eventually takes us all, but as a senior today, we're doing things that our parents would never have dreamed of doing at our age. I suspect the same will be true for my kids when they've achieve my age.

I frankly can't say I'll get back to skiing after tangling with both leukemia and back problems, but I've certainly seen many on the mountain having a great time in their 80's. I've know boaters actively sailing into their 90's. Coronavirus may have us isolating, but this too will pass and I look forward to when it does.

Gary