NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Leprecon7777]

The model was fitted to the only long-term data NWBO provided... namely the survival for the top 100 was 58.4 months. Using this information, the model yielded a blended survival of approximately 16% at 60-months.

Based on the modest improvement seen at 36-months between the Journal update and the SNO update, my expectation is the the blended Survival at 60-months will be closer to 18% and possibly as high as 20%. So to answer your question, yes it is possible the model is slightly overstating the deaths.

With that said, I do find it troublesome that NWBO has not provided the 60-month survival curve and the number of alive particularly since the company has been touting the survival "tail".

Ref:
https://nwbio.com/updated-interim-data-from-phase-3-trial-of-dcvax-l-for-glioblastoma/