i don't think so ex. My sock throw is that that around 150k is looking like your most likely outcome. I think you're looking at over a quarter of a million if things get really nasty. As i said previously i'd love to be wrong.
True the US has a lower population density than europe but 80% of US citizens live in urban areas whilst i think it's like 75% in europe. Overall, the topology of the inter-person physical interaction network i doubt is very different...and it's those interactions where you spend a significant amount of time with any given person that are apparently the most important.
But the bigger factor is the uncoordinated response and concern for the economy. In europe it has been uncoordinated but at least every nation seems to have come to the same realization that lockdown is necessary (even if the UK was acting a bit bojo for a while). However, certain states seem to want to avoid a lock down at all costs like florida for example ...that's going to backfire (and as much as i like the way cuomo is handling things now he also resisted a lockdown when it was clearly the thing to do...now he and all new yorkers are paying for for that delay in taking the right decision).
My prediction is that pretty much every state will be significantly affected once this is over...at least those with a major urban centers. They will fall like dominoes leading to a long extended plateau/peak for the US as a whole with about 5000 deaths a day for possibly as long as a month. I feel sorry for ohio given they were making the right decisions...
just a sock throw
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