Replies to post #4565 on Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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NY Crude Oil Futures - WATERFALL LOW »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 14, 2020

WE SEE THE ANALYTICAL SITUATION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 13, 2020: The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 3173 is immediately trading down about 48% for the year from last year's closing of 6106. Up to now, this market has been declining for 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 4385 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in March is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 2734 intraday and remains trading beneath that level. FOCUSING ON TREND


Factually, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 11 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 21% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 8653 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 4533 which the market is now trading beneath illustrating technical weakness.

A possible change in trend appears due come April in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during January. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4385 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 4385 closing yesterday at 3173. We now need to close below 4385 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 6565 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6660 back during April 2019. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The previous high made during January on the Monthly level at 6565 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. The previous low of 4236 made during December 2018 on the Monthly level, has now been broken in the recent decline here during February and the market is trading beneath it thereby inferring weakness. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 5099 above the market.

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NY Crude Oil Futures - High Turning Sharply Lower »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 11, 2020

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM OVERVIEW COMMENTARY, NY CRUDE OIL FUTURES AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Apr. 9, 2020: The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 2276 is immediately trading down about 62% for the year from last year's closing of 6106. At this time, we are trading beneath last year's low which leaves the market in a bearish tone still on the monthly level down in time.


So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's closing, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.

The Energy Model is measuring the bulls against the bears. It is providing a different measurement of how much 'energy' remains in the market from the long-side. Therefore, if people are recently long, it shows to what extent that represents the whole of the market position. A crash is possible when energy is at a high level and a rally is likely when energy is negative.This is based upon our proprietary models and not the published numbers of longs and shorts.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 2387, 2446, and 2938 for this next trading session. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 2393, 2450, 2745, 3029. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 2836 and closed below that same low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 20%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side and it remains below all our internal momentum cyclical support models as well. We have elected 1 Bearish Reversal from the cyclical high established on 04/03.

Up to this moment in time, the market remains bearish on the momentum indicator yet still positive on our short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market is also trading mostly below the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The market is trading within our envelope albeit skewed to the bearish side.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 2075 settling at 2509. The current crash mode support for this session was 2195 which we still closed above implying the market is holding for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 2093. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 745 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible. This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 2913. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 2829 settling at 2509 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 2723 which we exceeded intraday, however, the market was unable to sustain that move and it closed back under this indicator. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 2928. Now this immediate indicator in the current trading session, is above the current close offering projected resistance. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to exceed 2928 during the next session warns the upward momentum may be lost and a retest of support becomes possible.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 2723
Previous... 2829
Tomorrow... 2928

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -2419
Weekly ....... 2020
Monthly ...... -5006
Quarterly .... -5070
Yearly ....... 3682

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Factually, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 56 and a end of week closing above this level will be a buy signal for now. Up to now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 7175 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

END OF WEEK

Factually, the last key event in this market was a low made 1 last week. So far this week the trading range has been 2836 to 2257.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Thu. 9th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

We closed the previous month at 4476 after making a new low down one month from the high established back in January during 2020 at 6565. So far, we have elected four Monthlys Bearish Reversals from that high warning we may be in the midst of a change in trend. Technically, the market is trading below our projected resistance level which stands at 3214. Currently, this market is still in a bearish posture below all our monthly indicating ranges. . The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 2020 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 1914.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


Focusing on our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Engergy Models are still making higher highs. This implies that any correction may hold important underlying support rather than a change in the broader trend on this level.

OVERALL TREND

On the quarterly level, this market is still in a bearish position. Turning to the monthly level, this market remains in a bearish position. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

WHAT-IF ANALYSIS

Employing our What-If Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see a another new high penetrating 2836. These hypothetical Bearish Reversals would rest atMoreover, the election of any of these Bearish Reversals would signal a decline is unfolding. However, if we continue to make new highs, then this WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Relying on our Reversal System, Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 4867 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2124. This provides a 56% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6397 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2020. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 68%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

----------------------------------------
2237 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2051 | 1 | 2124 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2000 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

RISK FACTORS

NY Crude Oil Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 2850 | 25.21% | 2237 | 1.713% |
WEEKLY........ 4867 | 113.8% | 2124 | 6.678% |
MONTHLY....... 6397 | 181% | 2020 | 11.24% |
QUARTERLY..... 6667 | 192.9% | 2020 | 11.24% |
YEARLY........ 9270 | 307.2% | 3512 | -54.3% |

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Reasons to Target This Renewable Energy SunPower (SPWR) Stock
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 8, 2020

• SunPower stock's latest peak comes amid historically low implied volatility, which could push it back to five-year highs

• The equity is already up over 231% this year

The shares of SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) are down 3.5% to trade at $16.68 at last check, despite earlier hitting a four-year high of $18.25. And while the renewable energy company already enjoys a jaw-dropping 231.8% lead year-to-date -- with support from the 30-day moving average over the last few weeks -- a historic bullish signal now flashing could indicate even more upside for SPWR in the near future.

Specifically, the stock's recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which has been a bullish combination for the equity in the past. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have only been two other times in the past five years when the stock was trading within 2% of a 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower -- as is the case with the SPWR's current SVI of 96.3%, which sits close to the 18th percentile of its 12-month range. Data shows the stock was higher a month later, averaging a return of 26.5% for that time period. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put SPWR just above the $21 mark, territory that hasn't been reached since 2015.

SPWR 30 day

The majority of analysts covering SPWR are still bearish, leaving plenty of room for upgrades and price-target hikes going forward, which could push the stock even higher. Of the 11 in coverage, nine call it a tepid "hold" or worse, while only two sport a "strong buy." Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $12.58 is a massive 25.7% discount to current levels.

A short squeeze could create even more tailwinds for the security. Short interest is up 28.3% in the last two reporting periods, and the 33.32 million shares sold short make up a substantial 41.3% of the SunPower stock's available float. In other words, it would take more than a week to buy back these bearish bets, at the security's average pace of trading.

In the options pits, traders are also pessimistic, with puts popular. This is per SPWR's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.06, which sits in the 91st percentile of its annual range -- meaning short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased.

What's more, the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks at 93 out of 100, implying that the SunPower stock has tended to exceed volatility expectations in the past year -- a boon for option buyers.

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NY Crude Oil Futures - WARNING Temp High In Place » Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 13, 2021

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 8079 and is trading up about 66% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2021. Noticeably, we have elected one Bullish Reversal to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 8178 and support forming below at 7955. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 25th at 8541, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 23rd. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 1st, which has been a move of .0791%.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.

Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 11 months since the low established back in November 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 6500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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Crude Oil Markets Continue to Rally
By: Christopher Lewis | January 6, 2022

• Crude oil markets had a good day on Thursday, as we continue to focus on the fact that OPEC may not be able to increase output as much as originally thought.

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see plenty of money flowing into the oil markets. There are concerns that OPEC may not be able to produce as much as people had anticipated, so therefore we are seen a bit of a squeeze higher. Ultimately, this is a market that is in an uptrend, so therefore it makes quite a bit of sense that we simply see this market break above the resistance barrier at the $79 level. However, at this point in time it is very likely that the $85 level will be a bit of a target.

Brent

Brent markets of course look the same, as we have broken through quite a bit of resistance and are hanging about the $82 level. By doing so, this suggests that the market is more than likely going to continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the $85 level given enough time. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see quite a bit of a “buy on the dips” type of attitude, and therefore that is exactly how I will be playing this market. The 50 day EMA is currently sitting that the $77.73 level and is curling higher, so that is something worth paying attention to as well as it does tend to attract a lot of technical trading. All things been equal, this is a very bullish market and at the end of the day you simply cannot short a market that is taking off like this one is.

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