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NY Crude Oil Futures - High Turning Sharply Lower »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 11, 2020

THE SOCRATES PREMIUM OVERVIEW COMMENTARY, NY CRUDE OIL FUTURES AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Apr. 9, 2020: The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 2276 is immediately trading down about 62% for the year from last year's closing of 6106. At this time, we are trading beneath last year's low which leaves the market in a bearish tone still on the monthly level down in time.


So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's closing, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.

The Energy Model is measuring the bulls against the bears. It is providing a different measurement of how much 'energy' remains in the market from the long-side. Therefore, if people are recently long, it shows to what extent that represents the whole of the market position. A crash is possible when energy is at a high level and a rally is likely when energy is negative.This is based upon our proprietary models and not the published numbers of longs and shorts.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 2387, 2446, and 2938 for this next trading session. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 2393, 2450, 2745, 3029. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

OVERVIEW ANALYSIS

The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 2836 and closed below that same low creating an outside reversal to the downside which was a very dramatic swing of 20%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side and it remains below all our internal momentum cyclical support models as well. We have elected 1 Bearish Reversal from the cyclical high established on 04/03.

Up to this moment in time, the market remains bearish on the momentum indicator yet still positive on our short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish. This market is also trading mostly below the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. The market is trading within our envelope albeit skewed to the bearish side.

We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 2075 settling at 2509. The current crash mode support for this session was 2195 which we still closed above implying the market is holding for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 2093. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode technical support lies at 745 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible. This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 2913. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 2829 settling at 2509 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 2723 which we exceeded intraday, however, the market was unable to sustain that move and it closed back under this indicator. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 2928. Now this immediate indicator in the current trading session, is above the current close offering projected resistance. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to exceed 2928 during the next session warns the upward momentum may be lost and a retest of support becomes possible.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 2723
Previous... 2829
Tomorrow... 2928

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -2419
Weekly ....... 2020
Monthly ...... -5006
Quarterly .... -5070
Yearly ....... 3682

Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Factually, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 56 and a end of week closing above this level will be a buy signal for now. Up to now, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 7175 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.

END OF WEEK

Factually, the last key event in this market was a low made 1 last week. So far this week the trading range has been 2836 to 2257.

RECREATING TIME

Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.

Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Thu. 9th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.

We closed the previous month at 4476 after making a new low down one month from the high established back in January during 2020 at 6565. So far, we have elected four Monthlys Bearish Reversals from that high warning we may be in the midst of a change in trend. Technically, the market is trading below our projected resistance level which stands at 3214. Currently, this market is still in a bearish posture below all our monthly indicating ranges. . The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 2020 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 1914.

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW


Focusing on our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Engergy Models are still making higher highs. This implies that any correction may hold important underlying support rather than a change in the broader trend on this level.

OVERALL TREND

On the quarterly level, this market is still in a bearish position. Turning to the monthly level, this market remains in a bearish position. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.

WHAT-IF ANALYSIS

Employing our What-If Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see a another new high penetrating 2836. These hypothetical Bearish Reversals would rest atMoreover, the election of any of these Bearish Reversals would signal a decline is unfolding. However, if we continue to make new highs, then this WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Relying on our Reversal System, Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 4867 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2124. This provides a 56% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6397 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2020. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 68%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

----------------------------------------
2237 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2051 | 1 | 2124 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2000 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

RISK FACTORS

NY Crude Oil Futures Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 2850 | 25.21% | 2237 | 1.713% |
WEEKLY........ 4867 | 113.8% | 2124 | 6.678% |
MONTHLY....... 6397 | 181% | 2020 | 11.24% |
QUARTERLY..... 6667 | 192.9% | 2020 | 11.24% |
YEARLY........ 9270 | 307.2% | 3512 | -54.3% |

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