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04/19/20 10:26 AM
THE SOCRATES PREMIUM OVERVIEW COMMENTARY, NY CRUDE OIL FUTURES AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 17, 2020: The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 2503 is immediately trading down about 59% for the year from last year's closing of 6106. At this time, we are trading beneath last year's low which leaves the market in a bearish tone still on the monthly level down in time.
So far, this market has remained below the previous year's high and it has broken under last year's low. Since it is also trading below last year's closing, this market still remains in a weak bearish position on a broader perspective.
Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.
PIVOT POINTS
Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 2506, 2592, and 2905 for this next trading session. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 2530, 2549, 2688, 2751. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.
OVERVIEW ANALYSIS
The NY Crude Oil Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low intraday but we closed back above that low yet still closed lower at the end of the trading session. Notwithstanding, the market has plunged significantly by 9%.
Up to this moment in time, the market remains bullish on the momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is bullish and our cyclical strength is bearish. The Superposition Reversal for tomorrow will be 2089 and a closing above that even after the election of Daily Bearish Reversals today, will imply a turn back to test overhead resistance will be possible. This last rally failed to exceed the high of the previous rally. Therefore, the market is making lower highs that normally indicates a rather bearish posture in general. However, we are also making lower lows recently which is also bearish tending to signal caution ahead.
Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 2136
Weekly ....... 2088
Monthly ...... -5006
Quarterly .... -5070
Yearly ....... 3682
Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.
Currently, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 56 and a end of week closing above this level will be a buy signal for now. Up to this moment in time, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 6565 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.
RECREATING TIME
Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.
Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Fri. 17th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.
We closed the previous month at 4476 after making a new low down one month from the high established back in January during 2020 at 6565. So far, we have elected four Monthlys Bearish Reversals from that high warning we may be in the midst of a change in trend. Technically, the market is trading below our projected resistance level which stands at 3214. Currently, this market is still in a bearish posture below all our monthly indicating ranges. . The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 2020 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 1914.
BROADER OVERVIEW
While the historical perspective of the of this market included a decline from the major high established back in 2008 moving into a major low in 2016, the market has bounced back for the last 4 years. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.
This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a bearish position with important overhead system resistance whereas we also remain is a bearish position on the monthly and weekly levels.
This past year alone, saw a significant price drop of about 42%.
DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
Looking at our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Engergy Models are still making higher highs. This implies that any correction may hold important underlying support rather than a change in the broader trend on this level.
OVERALL TREND
On the quarterly level, this market is still in a bearish position. Turning to the monthly level, this market remains in a bearish position. Overall, the posture is generally bearish for now.
YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS
YEARLY TIMING ANALYSIS
Addressing the longer-term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2020, 2023, 2025, 2028 and 2030. We show a potential for a decline moving into 2020 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2023. This is a realistic potential since we have already penetrated last year's low of 4435.
YEARLY DIRECTIONAL CHANGES
The most important timing model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2020, during 2021 and during 2030. This model often picks the high or low but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level.
YEARLY VOLATILITY
Aiming on the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2026. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only greater price movement.
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