Replies to post #4771 on Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)

[jugs]

......there are over 2 million people in Japan with vitiligo, which seems to be an enormous market opportunity compared to the U.S. In summary, total # of sales of RECELL kits for treatment of vitiligo in Japan could be enormous compared to the U.S.

Doesn't that beg the question:

How available will the procedure be for vitiligo sufferers?

I'm thinking not only of insurability depth but also medical people trained and/or otherwise prepared to train so as to be positioned to offer ReCell to patients? We know of the advantages Avita offers here in the States but medical breakthroughs do take time to develop pathways in terms of commercialization. I'd expect the process to require a couple of years in that other country.

I know nothing about Japan's medical insurance system so all information will be most appreciated. Being a senior and a recipient of Medicare coverage, I can't help but wonder about vitiligo itself. A year ago I wouldn't have known it as a disease, so ignorant was I. Today, I know of it as a pigment condition people find unacceptable. Does that, alone, translate into insurability likely to cover a patient's wish to be free of an unsightly disorder? Perhaps I should point out that seven years ago I was told I'd be dead in a year or less due to a cancer onset unless immediate action was taken. Several years post-op I was pronounced cancer free, thankfully. Medicare paid for everything other than for a $52.40 bill I delightedly paid myself. Our medical insurance program here is awesome. But I don't think Medicare would pay for cosmetic surgery. However, I have no knowledge of such issues.

Thank you!

[Fitz1030]

You have to read the details on the slides closely. Yes, there are ~2million in Japan with Vitiligo, but there's ~6million in the U.S. with Vitiligo (which makes sense since we are 3x the population of Japan). The TAM of 158,000 U.S. patients represents the number of people with Vitiligo that actually seek medical treatment each year. This means that just under 3% of those with Vitiligo actually look to get it treated, hence the U.S. TAM is 158,000 and Japan's would be roughly a third of that - 53,000. Still a big market opportunity, but it would be foolish to overlook the fact that ~97% of those with Vitiligo are not bothered enough by it to seek treatment.