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Replies to post #39661 on GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)
01/04/20 10:28 AM
CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 3, 2020: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 155240 and is trading up about 1.92% for the year from last year's closing of 152310. Presently, this market has been rising for this month going into January reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 155660 while it is still trading above last month's high of 152900.
At the moment, the market remains bullish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bullish and our cyclical strength is neutral.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 8 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 48% which has been an appreciable up move to date. We have elected one yearly buy signal during this bounce currently. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established Sat. Jan. 1, 2011 for the past 8 years and a closing below 68090 would signal that a continued decline is underway. Likewise, only a breakout to new highs with a closing above 192370 would suggest a renewed rally is unfolding.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 163186 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 137370 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come February in NY Gold Nearest Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during November 2019. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 152900 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 152900 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 157237 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
Critical support still underlies this market at 126780 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 16 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 144620 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during September 2019 on the Monthly level at 156620 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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