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NY Gold Nearest Futures - Pushing Higher »» Monthly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 28, 2019

THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Dec. 27, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 151810 and is trading up about 18% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. This price action here in December is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 151990 intraday and is still trading above that high of 151900.


Immediately, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 45% which has been an appreciable up move to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 157594 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 131000 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during November. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a low at 144620 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 156620 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.

Critical support still underlies this market at 126780 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 15 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 146500 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during September on the Monthly level at 156620 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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