Replies to post #235498 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

K-

$42 is reasonable analyst projection on 5 billion peak sales

FYI:

we now model peak sales at $3.6 billion, or up approximately 20% from our prior $3.0 billion estimate. … M&A valuation: We also continue to see an M&A ranking of 2 as appropriate for AMRN. Our M&A value assumes 11x year 3 Vascepa sales in this new indication, consistent with the historical takeout multiple for smid-cap biotechs. Applying this multiple to our revised 2022E sales estimate and discounting it back plus net cash yields a $14 billion equity valuation, or $42 per share. This implies nearly 5x peak sales, which would be broadly consistent with recent M&A activity in the cardiovascular space. … Diluted shares (mm): 331

No comment …

Best,
G

[couldbebetter]

KCSVEN, I like HDGabor's comment better...and a 50% higher price for ROW.
Of course if BP were to calculate peak revenues (worldwide) of $5 billion
then $42 might be all they would offer...although at 4.5 X $5 B = $22.5 B
or $55 a share. Thanks for providing your view. Personally, I believe
that under a BP flag Vascepa would have peak revenues of at least $8 B...
$4 B in the US with 2 million patients and $4 B in Europe with 3 million
patients. ( I would really like to know what Europe based BP have
modeled for Vascepa revenues and patient population for Europe...
country by country.) For example: What would Britain look like?
If AZN acquired AMRN I think they would have a quicker approval there
than say if NVS acquired AMRN. I think Europe is the Key to AMRN's
takeout value.