Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

K-

$42 is reasonable analyst projection on 5 billion peak sales

FYI:

we now model peak sales at $3.6 billion, or up approximately 20% from our prior $3.0 billion estimate. … M&A valuation: We also continue to see an M&A ranking of 2 as appropriate for AMRN. Our M&A value assumes 11x year 3 Vascepa sales in this new indication, consistent with the historical takeout multiple for smid-cap biotechs. Applying this multiple to our revised 2022E sales estimate and discounting it back plus net cash yields a $14 billion equity valuation, or $42 per share. This implies nearly 5x peak sales, which would be broadly consistent with recent M&A activity in the cardiovascular space. … Diluted shares (mm): 331

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