Replies to post #233739 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[AVII77]

Why did they divide 33.5 million by 5?

My first run through the numbers came up with a number closer to the 33.5 million. Please, if you have time, check it out.

[AVII77]

They estimated 6.7 million patients eligible annually.

I said ~7 million.

Feels like a good estimate.

This is what I wanted you to look carefully at.

It looks like ICER estimated 33,522,000 patients.

They divided that by 5 because:

For each treatment, we assumed equal uptake over five years, with treatment duration ranging from one year (for the year-five cohort) to five years (for the year-one cohort). In other words, patients initiating therapy in year one would accrue all drug costs and cost offsets over the full five years, but those initiating in other years would only accrue a proportional amount of the five-year costs.

"equal uptake over 5 years" would be:

Year 1: 6.7 million patients
Year 2: 13.4 million patients
Year 3: 20.1 million patients
Year 4: 26.8 million patients
Year 5: 33.5 million patients

My read is that ICER estimates the eligible patient population in the US at 33.5 million patients. I'd really like you to have a look at that because it seems crazy.

PDF Page 94 https://icer-review.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/ICER_CVD_Final_Evidence_Report_101719.pdf

And, I would also note that ICER says:

Clinical experts stated at the Public Meeting that they believe that the majority of eligible patients would want to be on icosapent ethyl.

and this is in contrast to what they said about rivaroxaban:

clinical experts at the Public Meeting stated that they would consider using rivaroxaban in approximately 30% of eligible patients.

And I am looking at the ICER report because they seem to be the least biased of anyone (or at least claim to be).