Replies to post #9498 on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[Jesspro]

Well, with a p-value of <0.001 being credited to the p2 data, doesn’t voclosporin deserve to get a 99% chance of being successful in the p3 trial? If they got that p-value in the p2 data and then try to improve the p3 blender and put the same fruits in the same order as the p2 protocol to get the same results juice, I think it is a very sound argument that the p3 data will also be stellar if not better..UNLESS OF COURSE THE P2 DATA IS A FAUX DATA or MANIPULATED DATA, in which case the management will be in big trouble. Can anybody give me any argument as to why P3 would fail given all the things we know? I can’t find one unless maybe all the patients in p3 are ETs with LN.....just my 2 cents.

[CoolG73]

Even though I am bullish on the outcome but I would forget this 50% CR. Even though it looks like the P2 and P3 are the same, the choice of population is extremely different, most of the P3 will be Black and Hispanic, something VCS tested shallowly in P2 (9 Hispanic and 3 Black), we are not sure we will have a meaningful difference with those 2 races knowing they are the hardest to treat and using low steroid. I think we would be lucky if we got something around 40%. Management talked about delta of 10% is clinically meaningful, so I hope they will achieve it, i think they will but P3 is gonna be less impressive than P2 imo, and the safety is always the wild card, we dont know if we will be lucky there but sure good yo know management made safety adjustments after P2