Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[CoolG73]

Even though I am bullish on the outcome but I would forget this 50% CR. Even though it looks like the P2 and P3 are the same, the choice of population is extremely different, most of the P3 will be Black and Hispanic, something VCS tested shallowly in P2 (9 Hispanic and 3 Black), we are not sure we will have a meaningful difference with those 2 races knowing they are the hardest to treat and using low steroid. I think we would be lucky if we got something around 40%. Management talked about delta of 10% is clinically meaningful, so I hope they will achieve it, i think they will but P3 is gonna be less impressive than P2 imo, and the safety is always the wild card, we dont know if we will be lucky there but sure good yo know management made safety adjustments after P2