Replies to post #212757 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Atom0aks]

Atom....

Please understand 4.8% of 4000 patients may not be a huge number 196 events..But Vascepa is not going to be restricted to 4000 patients...Say Vasepa is treating 80,000,000 patients (Vascepa's target. pop) then 4.8% is about 4 mil events...

Comprendez-vous???

":>) JL

First, I think the estimate was closer to 70 million.

Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/897448/000119312511217355/dex991.htm

Second, it was an optimistic estimate and likely at the high end of the range.

Third, it would take time (definitely not within the 3-4 month delay) to reach a fraction of that population.

Fourth, based on yesterday's fireside chat, whether Amarin has the capacity to supply a fraction of that population is questionable.

[Atom0aks]

First, I think the estimate was closer to 70 million.

Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/897448/000119312511217355/dex991.htm

Second, it was an optimistic estimate and likely at the high end of the range.

Third, it would take time (definitely not within the 3-4 month delay) to reach a fraction of that population.

Fourth, based on yesterday's fireside chat, whether Amarin has the capacity to supply a fraction of that population is questionable.

Hey JL, looks like my first point was incorrect. After listening to the Citi conference, Thero mentioned the potential population to be 90 million (question starts at 5:30).

I posted the transcript here: 212894 (hyperlink)