I understand how and why the shorts are forced to close but still don't think it happens very often. Sure, some people will place sell orders causing a drop in shares available to short but others won't. They will keep their shares long. In additions to that new investors will purchase shares which will then be added to the shares available to short. It's a revolving door. Either way, I don't think we are dealing with many retail shorts here so there are probably many other factors at play.
Ultimately like you said, science will be the reason for our increase. I think most here share that sentiment.