Replies to post #200146 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[OFP]

We don’t know of anything in the near term that needs $250m, not sure how you figure o/s needs to be extended by 100m?

A3-71 is going to cost a bit taking into P1, call it $20m.

On the pessimistic side this can be used as a company reboot (dilution to penny status, reverse splits, etc) for A3-71 if/when 2-73 trials fail.

On optimistic side it could be used to pretend they might market 2-73 themselves and therefore apply some pressure (non-credible IMO) on potential partners should they show evidence of efficacy.

My bet (if I make one) will be on the former but it pretty much means Missling can do whatever he wants for the next decade or so regardless of outcome with little interference from investors.

[Gator328]

My guiding philosophies are: plan for the best but prepare for the worst, and believe none of what you hear and half of what you see. It's not much fun living as a skeptic but when it comes to investing it's served me well.

I'd like to believe that MIssling isn't hoping for the best but planning for the worst, but I cannot discount that possibility. He's raising money now while there's still demand for AVXL shares.

As for the A/S being extended, 100M was an arbitrary number. But if Missling plans to go at this alone it will cost way more than $250M to properly bring this drug to market. This shelf offering wasn't a rushed decision either. It's been in the works for a while, so one has to wonder why Missling represented the company's cash position as sufficient for the next two years if his plan all along was to raise more funds?

A simple, "We have enough cash for now but as you all know we will need a lot more going forward" would have been appropriate. But Missling never made this representation at the shareholder meeting. In fact, he insinuated quite the opposite -- that the company's cash reserves would take it through trials and then partnership was the next step to securing funds.