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Replies to post #20299 on Big Board Trading
07/06/19 10:12 AM
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 5, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2692212 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. This price action here in July is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 2696600 intraday and is still trading above that high of 2690737.
Up to now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high thereby making a new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a reasonable period of 10 years.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come October in Dow Jones Industrials so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a low at 2468057 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 2690737 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 2695181 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 2160033 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding and is trading above last month's high. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 46 months. The previous low of 1537033 made during August 2015 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 2480951 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during October 2018 on the Monthly level at 2695181 has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
