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Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) Monthly Summary Analysis »» Breakout
By: Marty Armstrong | June 29, 2019

CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 28, 2019: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2659996 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 2332746. This price action here in July is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.


Currently, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish.

The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have up to now this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern. So far we have seen a trading range of 2690737 for a high and 2263841 for the low.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 2818645 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 1881635 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come October in Dow Jones Industrials so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 2468057 but closed on the positive side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 2695181 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during October 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 2160033 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 46 months. The previous low of 1537033 made during August 2015 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 2480951 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during October 2018 on the Monthly level at 2695181 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend.

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