Replies to post #195491 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Jeffkad]

Exactly.

[mrmainstreet]

Thanks KC, appreciate the insight. I'm probably oversimplifying the process in my head, since I just want some C level suit to walk up to Amarin's front door and give them $50 a share and call it good.

[circuitcity]

Excellent discussion, 100% agree. Seems thensituation favors BPs though because every bp seems pretty patient, same time amrn sales is not exploding and amrn seems not doing much.

I am puzzled by the last part the most. Why JT is not doing much?Does he have some sort of agreement in place already with a BP such as a ball park number deal when approval is in place? If this is the case can they keep it confidential or they have to disclose?

[vinyyy23]

Perfectly well said KCSVEN. I’m an investment adviser and have knowledge of the IB side as I have friends in the business, and this is basically what goes on behind the scenes. I still believe a BO will occur around a $40 PPS, anyone’s guess on CVR value (hopefully $10 to get us to that lovely $50 PPS).

If price tanks in the short term may scoop up 2020 call options.

[dmiller]

Great, great post! For the most part, you are pretty much spot on based on my experience. I have a new found respect for you lol. Really great post!

[Whalatane]

Well how about
1) Where's the confirmed API supply chain to support the max sales potential . AMRN is not vertically integrated ( they don't harvest the anchovies and process the oil ) .
2) Can you effectively shut down DS alternatives like OmegiaVia EPA 500.
3) What are the insurance Tier ratings post approval ...if co pays for some are still over $100 how do you justify peak sales.
4) Details of EU partnership.
But no ...none of this matters to some on this board ..BP should just buy anyway.

The best thing about JT's presentation today.... is that he did not announce that an ADCOM had been scheduled .
Of course if an Adcom is announced ...some here will panic , stock will probably tank ....and the last buying opportunity pre approval ( besides a market meltdown due to trade wars ) will have been created .
JMO
Kiwi

[mclim]

Thanks for the good write up. I suspect buyout chatter will start once FDA approves this. We are near the bottom. Even the last hit piece was a temporary blip. Only thing that worries me is that by the time we get approved, we will have nothing solved on the tariff with China (along with 25% on all items) and Mexico (same 25% by October).

Even knowing this, I know this is going much much higher in couple of years.

Cheers!

[SonamKapoor]

KCSven - Excellent post. Risk is a buyer's tactic to tire kick.

You and Tasty both are crushing it this morning.

[james murphy]

Great post and if they are like Teva recently who FDA claim may have had 19 other generic companies in their camp and able to move price of drugs really high and that would be ok if Pfe had 19 BP in their back pocket but they don't so they can't sit back for de risk because someone else is going to give Amrn a decent offer and Pfe will have to play or let it go .Im counting on legit offer after p/r .May take another month but needs to happen .

[studythosestocks]

Great post

[rafunrafun]

If other moderators weren't asleep behind the wheel, they would sticky this post.

A moderator can only sticky one and I already stickied HD's.

[Hawk_Driver]

Excellent post. Case-in-point for why deals are like this is the Ranbaxy-Daicchi deal.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.rediff.com/amp/money/report/column-the-mistakes-daiichi-sankyo-made-in-the-ranbaxy-deal/20160512.htm

[jessellivermore]

KCSVEN"

"It's actually pretty simple." Yes it is...To paraphrase Ronald Reagan back in 1980...

"Are you better off today than you were a day before the announced secondary". Is the PPS higher or lower? is the PPS in an up trend or a down trend"...

I'm sorry if I don't want to follow the Lemmings over the cliff..

Raf you are right JT will never hurt for money. The same can not be said for the small shareholders...

I have been on many stock boards in my life and I can not remember one where so many posters were so enthralled with a secondary offering..or are in such denial about what has/is happening to the PPS...Guess you guys don't like money.

Fact is I have been a big supporter of the management and sometimes one of the only supporters..I take it day by day...I'm not interested in what happened back in 2015...I am only interested in what is happening now..and that I don't like..All this talk about what will happen in 2020 is just speculation...Since I have been a long time believer in the value of Vascepa...I think it is going to be very hard to screw things up..But I think this cash raise with the discounted stock just might have the possibility to do it..I have been on this message board longer than all but a few of you...and for the most part I have been right..even when I was championing some very unpopular opinions..So all of you who are scoffing at me and belittling me..Maybe you should be paying some attention to what I am posting..Particularly you guys have who only started posting on the board after the R-I results were revealed...

":>) JL

[jessellivermore]

KCSVEN....

Quote: It's actually pretty simple....Indeed it is To paraphrase Ronald Reagan...Are you better off today or the day before the secondary was announced...

Yes I have been a long term supporter of management...I have supported them when almost everyone on the board was dissing them...I try to be objective and give them praise when they deserve it and criticism when they make a mistake...

IMO This secondary is a big mistake in its timing and its execution..
Delaying the secondary till after the FDA approval of the sNDA was the the right move...And those of you that say...maybe we wont get the approval..well JT is on record saying he thinks the sNDA in late Sept is a done deal..and if we don't get the sNDA why do we need a massive cash infusion...I'm not nearly as unhappy with the timing as I am with the execution...The stock was on an updraft and was over $23 when they announced the dilution...This had the predictable effect of dropping the PPS down to $18...which was a considerable discount to what the market price was prior to the announcement..The PPS has not been supported and it currently trades in the low 17s ...This despite very good reports by ICER..strong earnings, a statement the the sNDA was a virtual certainty..We have been flooded with good news and the upshot is a PPS in freefall...

Do I think this is the end of Amarin...No certainly not...I remain huge fan Vascepa and think its market value is greater than almost all of you do...I just am not happy with what is going on now..and if JT is half as good as all of you think...Then he should be able to get us back into an uptrend...When I see that I will stop posting and annoying all of you..

Its actually pretty simple...

":>) JL

[jessellivermore]

KCSVEN....

My son and I have recently joined the ranks of the Angel Investors..The Jobs Act now allows even normal human beings in the USA to invest in private equities..I am not at the level of Mark Cuban...but you can now get into private equity "portals" for less than $100..As Gabor will confirm..I am not a B-school Grad...

You should have ended your message after the first four words...

I have been listening to the song of the Buy-outers since Late "November 2010...and they all tell me how hard it is to GIA...And how BP have the right to buy the company for the price they think it is worth..And yet no one has stepped forward...I think the part all you B-School grads don't seem to come to grips with is the decision to sell the company is in the hands of Amarin..And maybe the guys who are running it actually enjoy their jobs and don't want to sell..Maybe they don't agree someone else (A BP) can do a better job. Maybe they don't care...Amarin is not like my car...I know what my car is worth and if someone offers to buy it for twice the market value then I will sell it in a NY minute because I know I can buy another one and make money on the deal...Amarin is different..There is only one Amarin and once you sell it you can not buy another one...

Some people actually enjoy their jobs and I am sure JT has enough money already not to make a decision to sell the company because he will have more money...What's he going to do if he gives up his job...Dam sure won't become a public speaker...

In private equity the founders sell part of the equity because they need money to support and grow the business..Generally they do not have to many other options...This is not germane to Amarin...What BP wants to do is fascinating...and maybe they can do a better job (a subject I would love to debate)...But I don't think JT gives a you know what about that.
JT and the Amarin gang got the company to where it is right now and I think they are enjoying the ride.I also believe the Baker Brothers also enjoy the prestige of owning this gem and don't need the money they would get in a sale for the foreseeable future...I think the BB are aligned with management on this one and do not see any sale in the near future...I think the BB like the idea that they also own the company and don't need money all that much either..

Time will tell

":>) JL

[jessellivermore]

KCSVEN

Too many loose assumptions..I do not think AMRN will sell out for the price you suggest..Regardless if a potential suitor Analyses everything...

You have posted this before...

":>) JL

[tmac20]

Somebody buy that man a drink! Great post KCSVEN.

Once the risks are removed and if Amarin decides to GIA, then BP will be able to further value the company based on how the 800 sales reps can grow revenue AND profit. Or they may just decide to purchase another company in that space with a similar drug and try to go head to head with Amarin (oh wait …. did that possibly happen already?).

In the GIA strategy, we, the shareholders, will be shouldering the risk. Hopefully we will see Amarin pay a dividend in the future because as of right now, there is no R&D costs to speak of.

I for one would be happy with a 45-50 PPS buyout at this juncture.

[jessellivermore]

KC...

Why are you reposting this???

":>) JL

[jessellivermore]

This is a duplicate post...

Why is this post not removed???

":>) JL