Replies to post #228650 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[eagle8]

Thank you for sharing Hbpainter.


GLTU

[tryn2]

From update:

“Updates at ASCO may include greater clarity on SAP progress, initiation of Phase II combo trials, and TIMING of top line data etc...”

TIMING... if true I look at this as a disappointment.

[abeta]

Based on her statement and the updated mOS of 58.4 months,

a conservative estimate is that

at least 51/331 (15%) of the patients in the DCVax-L trial have survived about 5 years without progression.

We expect this percentage to improve for the early-treated patients

(with a concomitant decrease for the delayed-treated and untreated)

when the trial is unblinded and the data are analyzed

=========================================================

McDonald et al showed in 2015 that Methylated tumors had 400% more somatic mutations than Unmethylated tumors

and there is strong published evidence (largely from various checkpoint inhibitor clinical trials, described and referenced extensively in the original white paper) that suggests a 4-fold increase in tumor mutational burden may be clinically meaningful in the context of immunotherapies that are designed to target mutations and other tumor associated antigens.

So, a good immunotherapy in GBM might be expected to increase the mOS difference between Methylated and Unmethylated patients, as was the case in the DCVax-L interim analysis

====================================================

20,000 ndGBM per year in US x $100,000 per patient = $2 billion revenue x 10x multiple = $20 billion market cap

Rago May 2019

[Johnnygogo]

and the shareprice does not even blink. This is just another pump from bigger and co.

[abeta]

My bad ..... I'm late ....

THANK YOU ...... for posting the paper.

regards

[Ultraz2]

Impressive summary...

[GoodGuyBill]

Carlo Rago's updated paper

https://www.scribd.com/document/411229128/A-Dendritic-Cell-Cancer-Vaccine-Shines-Brighter-for-Glioblastoma-Patients

Summary

We believe NWBO is leading the burgeoning DC vaccine race because their Phase III read-out appears imminent and their platform is capable of addressing the vast majority of cancers, in theory. There is a growing preponderance of evidence that suggests there is intrinsic value in the DCVax platform. A positive Phase III in newly diagnosed GBM will open the flood gates to more favorable funding and more rapid development for other cancer indications and immunotherapy combination trials. Accordingly, the decision by Linda Powers to allow the median follow-up time to mature such that the results captured the “long tail” of survival may be regarded as one of the most difficult and important decisions in biotech history. Demonstration of progress with the SAPs, Phase II combination trials, and greater clarity on the timing of the top line results for the Phase III GBM trial will be very useful for investors. In our next update, we intend to share two additional discussion points which we believe could impact the valuation of NWBO after positive Phase III data in GBM.

Disclosures

Carlo Rago, PhD owns Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) Common Stock. In addition, Dr. Rago serves as a Consultant to Bigger Capital and is a partner in District 2 Capital. Dr. Rago’s compensation at District 2 Capital and Bigger Capital depends on the performance of the securities in their portfolios. District 2 Capital and Bigger Capital own both Common Stock and Warrants of NWBO. This review is based solely on publicly available information and does not represent medical or investment advice in any way. This white paper may contain forward-looking statements, including statements as to anticipated or expected results, beliefs, opinions, and future financial performance. The forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause the Company's actual experience to differ materially from that anticipated. The views contained in this white paper represent the opinions of Dr. Rago as of the date hereof. In addition, the efficacy and safety of DCVax-L is only one element in valuing the securities of the Company. Investors and other interested parties of the Company are encouraged to do their own analysis of DCVax-L and the Company. Dr. Rago reserves the right to change any of his opinions expressed herein at any time and for any reason and expressly disclaims any obligation to correct, update or revise the information contained herein. The information contained in the white paper may not contain all of the information required in order to evaluate the value of the Company or its securities. Investors should seek independent scientific or financial advice regarding the efficacy and safety of DCVax-L, the suitability of investing in any securities or of following any investment strategies; Dr. Rago is not offering or providing such services in connection with this white paper or otherwise making a recommendation to buy or sell any of the Company’s securities.

[meirluc]

While Carlo Rago's presentation is very interesting, a correction may be in order. Dr. Rago"s states that based on Linda Liau's 2019 video, he can conservatively estimate that at least 51 of the 331 patients (15%) survived 5(+) years without progression.

However, what I heard in Dr. Liau's video and it matches Sentiment stocks' transcription of the video, seems to indicate that Dr.Liau said that the majority of the approx 93 patients (28.2% of 331) who survived 36(+) months enjoyed a PFS status at that time (36 months). That would mean that at least about 47 post 36 months survivors were still PFS at 36(+) months.



https://www.scribd.com/document/411229128/A-Dendritic-Cell-Cancer-Vaccine-Shines-Brighter-for-Glioblastoma-Patients

[carp77]

Re eq