Replies to post #228653 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

at least 51/331 (15%) of the patients in the DCVax-L trial have survived about 5 years without progression.

[Per Rago]
Wow.

Hard to believe somebody can be that wrong. I guess that is all the "expert" Big Boy can for NWBO shares.

The number who have actually lived over 5 years is something like 65 as many of the top 100 have not been in trial that long (somebody can check the enrollment if they care, I did not bother to).

Of those 65, you would expect 37 to live 5 years as that is more than the median.

Of those 37, most would be a number like 25. Not 51.

He also is amazed at the increase in the top 100 median, totally ignoring that it is a more select group than the prior 100 was. The median of the top 30% will be larger than the median of the top 80%.

[abeta]

We suggested that the 2015 clinical hold

might be due to abundant caution around the phenomenon of pseudo- progression,

which often occurs when patients are treated with immunotherapies (as the tumor enlarges with infiltrating lymphocytes etc.).

Notably, pseudo-progression is known to correlate with improved survival outside of the immunotherapy setting.

The clinical hold was lifted, and the Phase III trial was completed.

The role of pseudo- progression and the significance of the completion of the trial

appear to be lost on some biotech analysts and reporters with outsized influence

Rago - May 2019

[abeta]

Project out to 72 months?

Dr. Liau noted that the “majority” of these top 100 survivors have not progressed, which suggests that they may contribute to impressive progression free survival results.

Based on her statement and the updated mOS of 58.4 months,

a conservative estimate is that at least 51/331 (15%) of the patients in

the DCVax-L trial have survived about 5 years without progression.

We expect this percentage to improve for the early-treated patients (with a concomitant decrease for the delayed-treated and untreated) when the trial is unblinded and the data are analyzed

Rago May 19 2019

SNO18 basis was thru October 2018 data point.

ASCO19 data would be - might be - to April 2019 data point i.e. 6 months later.