Replies to post #179081 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Biobillionair]

Valuation models:

On guideline drugs to reduce cardiovascular disease events by about 25%:

Primary Care 2 drug classes:
1) Statins
2) Vascepa

On guidelines to further reduce cardiovascular events by a significant RRR from clinical trials:
1) PCSK9
other stuff.....

Note in the primary care drug classes above Statins and Vascepa do not compete...THEY BOTH PROVIDE ADDITIVE PROVEN THERAPIES.

Model valuation:
Vascepa will grow to same # of statin scripts.

Question What are the trends in statin use and expenditure in the US adult population?

Findings This cohort study found that statin use among adults 40 years and older increased from 17.9% in 2002-2003 to 27.8% in 2012-2013, with significantly lower use among women, racial/ethnic minorities, and the uninsured. The gross domestic product–adjusted total cost for statins decreased from $17.2 billion (out-of-pocket cost, $7.6 billion) to $16.9 billion (out-of-pocket cost, $3.9 billion), with brand-name statins accounting for 55% of total costs in 2012-2013.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2583425

Max Vascepa sales conservatively $15-$20B in US alone.

Market cap estimate peak sales times 5-7 multiplier; Market cap range $75B- $105B. Fully diluted PPS 380 million. $197 - $276 PPS.

Selling AMRN for under $200 PPS is not happening.

BB

[ilovetech]

BB, given where the information came from, I really didn't think twice to question him. It was very late in the evening, and in his calm and collected usual self, he just came out with this information, which was just another item among others. He said, quote: "Are you familiar with AACE/ADA?" "Well, they just added Vascepa to their guidelines". "That's great because lazy doctors love guideless to follow step by step". I had to jump on the board to share this obviously but didn't expect pushback. But I did have enough time to catch him before we parted to ask what his source was? He replied, "The reps told me at the office yesterday", something to the effect that Amarin released this update to all the reps company-wide.

It would defy all logic for these reps to be untruthful since:

a) His practice writes a ton of scripts
b) He takes a personal interest in their success, as I've seen him call them to provide strategic leads that would ramp up their numbers.
c) Whenever the stock went down, they would call my brother to express their concerns, as they have put some of their own money in Amarin. It's this lack of faith that has contributed to his comments about not being too impressed with Amarin's hiring choices.

BB - I will see him again tonight. For the sake of the board, I will re-test his confidence level. If I feel a smidgen of doubt, I'll ask him to call the rep to see how concrete a declaration I can secure for the board.

Cheers,
ILT