Yeah, I think that the key may be recognizing what counts as an accredited investor and comparing that to the minimum Paulson investments required. To be an accredited investor:
1) Be worth over $1mm, excluding primary residence, or:
2) Make over $250k for the last three years.
Neither of those necessarily and definitively put you in a place where a minimum investment of $50k in an OTC stock is a comfortable or easy thing to carry. However, if you can put in $50k, take out $52k, and keep warrants? That becomes very doable. I would guess that regardless if potential outcomes, the vast majority of individual accredited investors simply don’t want to carry $50k+ of exposure to an OTC stock if they can keep warrant exposure for free. Simply too large a portion of liquid net worth.
I’m with BL and finesand on this one. And if Paulson + OTC doesn’t fully explain the SP, I bet it explains 95% of it.