Replies to post #211862 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[CogDiss 1188X]

I used this binomial calculator tool - essentially a glorified coin tosser that you can weight to give odds other than 50%.

https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/calculators/binomial-distribution-calculator/

It only goes up to n = 300, so I adjusted downward by 10% since n = 331.

The likelihood of being a control (flipping tails with a loaded coin ) is p = .33.
Number of trials (flips of the loaded coin) = 300 (limit of the tool).

Range of successful flips/trials coming up for control arm is between x1 = 0 and x2 = 90 (the 10% adjustment because of tool limitation).

The likelihood of that result is .148 or roughly 15%.

[longfellow95]

Frankly, it's not credible...

The CRO would have been charged with doing a randomization within a gnat's whicker of 2:1.
And we've ended up with just about 70:30.
Thereby significantly weakening the statistical power.
Cue start of lawsuits..

I just don't buy it, I'm afraid.
There is another explanation.