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CogDiss 1188X

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CogDiss 1188X

Re: CogDiss 1188X post# 211862

Friday, 02/01/2019 6:25:45 PM

Friday, February 01, 2019 6:25:45 PM

Post# of 693454
I used this binomial calculator tool - essentially a glorified coin tosser that you can weight to give odds other than 50%.

https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/calculators/binomial-distribution-calculator/

It only goes up to n = 300, so I adjusted downward by 10% since n = 331.

The likelihood of being a control (flipping tails with a loaded coin ) is p = .33.
Number of trials (flips of the loaded coin) = 300 (limit of the tool).

Range of successful flips/trials coming up for control arm is between x1 = 0 and x2 = 90 (the 10% adjustment because of tool limitation).

The likelihood of that result is .148 or roughly 15%.
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