I agree with you completely.
- VOS PH2B needs to hit primary and secondary endpoints.
- Study is very well designed from a product strategic view.
- VOS is not baked into the price.
It's because of this last point that I think it very possible, even likely that PPS could have that big of a spike.
My reasoning is based on size of DES market (Global DES market $7.8 billion) and how large VOS share could be. Restasis currently has $1.5 billion in global sales, and is expected to increase to $2.3 billion by 2023 and then decrease to $1.7 billion by 2025 due to generics competition. VOS would not have competition from generics that soon and would actually be an ideal candidate to compete with or replace Restasis.
Even though DES is not Aurinia focus, as it's not really their area of expertise, it seems that Glickman and team have become more excited about VOS potential, particularly when you listen to the points he made at the JPM presentation.
Anyway, we'll certainly see in the next few weeks!
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