Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[Lunacy_John Galt]

Scifi,

I like your optimism, and hope your price predictions come true!

If the run-up continues to data release, then a certain level of results will likely become baked-in to the PPS...i.e. Primary endpoint met, with intermittent results with the secondary endpoints.

If the trial produces overwhelmingly positive results with great p-values like the PH2B LN study, then I do think we can see the type of action you mentioned.

If only primary is met, and all secondary endpoints disappoint then I do see a sell-off.

The other reason I don't want to speculate on PTs is because no one has built any value into their models for VOS leading up to this trial. I'm not sure a 100 pt Ph2 DES readout is a big enough catalyst for the price movement you suggested given it's not the company's main focus, however, a lot more eyes are on AUPH now and Glickman has done a great job generating excitement around this readout.

I also imagine shorts will get very creative with hit-pieces following the data release to short any PPS spike or even this run-up.