Replies to post #206771 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Poor Man -]

Good point.

I've thought for a long time that Linda cannot go it alone, that they either need to sell outright or partner with BP, because they need the muscle of a larger and connected partner to protect themselves. But it's not the shorts. The biggest risk outside the trial results itself is political risk: that either a large pharma or investor with political connections would undermines the company at the FDA level, which seemed to be happening during the last election cycle when Les was complaining about how difficult it had become to deal with the staff at the FDA.

That's why I think LP will either partner or sell DCVax-L when topline is announced. There is no way that the shorts will allow the price to appreciate significantly from this level if NWBO is still independent and alone. They will do everything they can. They have shown that they can do this before. I know that LP knows this.

[meirluc]

just go back and see what happened to Dendreon when they completed their first phase 3.

Won't happen here. NWBO is making sure that all of the patients are well over 40 months past their last surgery. That will allow the derived 5 year survival figures to be quite reliable. Most likely around 20% of the trial patients will be alive 5 years past their surgery and I expect SOC to have a 5 year survival which is SS less than that of trial. These results will probably be unassailable and with NICE also considering the treatment, the FDA will have a difficult time turning down a treatment that NICE is likely to incorporate. I think LP is aware of all the pitfalls and the unusual length of this trial is designed to minimize the risks of failure.

I believe that the thick long tail will overshadow the mPFS and mOS results and will carry this trial to success.