Replies to post #152249 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[punkle]

Japan opened down 50 points at the open. Japan is very volatile at the open so hard to tell if this means anything but they're not starting a Grasso rally "yet."

mlsoft or anyone who lives in the book-to-bill world have any deep thoughts on the latest report? Is it "worse than expected" as I believe or are there reasons to see positive signs in the report?

[ajtj99]

Some of the things I've looked at tonight suggest we might mimic last week's move down to COMP 1822 in a brother leg. TRINQ 60-minute is almost mirroring the action from Sept. 9.

Effective trading range on the NDX on a weekly basis is 1313 to 1392. We hit the top of that range today and reversed, so a test of the lower range again is not out of the question.

It is interesting that the next increment in the weekly trading range moves to 1457 NDX if 1392 is surpassed on a weekly close. That is around COMP 1960-1980, depending on how frothy the COMP gets.

We have been nicely bracketed by these weekly trading ranges formed by the 50, 75, 100, and 125 EMA's on the weekly NDX since March, so I think it is prudent to respect them. Thus I respect your caution after double tops all around and a reversal off the top of the weekly trading range.

[deuce bigalow]

Low P/C ratios are cascading one after the other, BP are in nosebleed territory. So I am staying cautious<<<<

bp's are high, but the recent pullback in the BP's, was that of a bull market pullback, a high level consolidation, all the recent tops in the BP's of the last three years returned cycles back to the oversold 20's area.

the long term p/c ratios are not in nosebleed territory, even the equity only p/c ratio, they may be in terms of the recent three years, but again, this market acts like a bull market, high level consolidations, huge breadth thrusts, drying up of 52 week new lows.

looking at the cee-bow p/c ratio, we had something of some exhuberance into late june (21dma), which was into the middle of the consolidation, but this thing is wacky since bottoming on august 4th, you'll probably remember then all the charts that were posted on this thread claiming the 87 crash redux draweth nigh (lmao),

during the uptrend from 8/4, we have had numerous days of c-bo p/c ratios above one, which has kept the 21 dma from moving down to a new level of exhuberance, and not yet even the 'irrational' exhuberance level of late june - now no indicator works every time, and there are times that the cboe miss-times the market, but from this area, i don't see the kind of exhuberance that could make any kind of top yet, I think some of the perma-bears on this thread need to capitulate and start posting trades on penny stocks, because they not only missed the whole sixth month uptrend, but have been losing their ass short, and want to make up for it post-haste -g-




again you can't count on any indicator, but my canary in the coal mine indicator of exhuberance in pennies, is a high volume upthrust in CMGI, which isn't there yet.


The biggest watched market, the 500, has had the narrowest consolidation range since the consolidation between april and june in 98, we broke above 1015 in early sept. on big volume, the general consensus was that the big boys would come back from hamptons and sell the rally, the recent pullback retested the breakout and we are moving up,

there just isn't anything right now in my little devious mind that justifies any huge bearish stance.