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Replies to post #1689 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
07/28/18 9:50 AM
THE ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 27, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 122300 so far is trading down about 6.59% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Jul. 26, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 16% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 127450 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 120390. This provides a 5.53% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 127690 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 123820. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 3.03%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 122300, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.04% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 124690. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 124690 but closed on the weak side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 121810.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of July 16th at 121070, which was down 14 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of July 16th, which has been a move of.0197%. Nevertheless, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 5 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 131300, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 121070, which formed during the week of July 16th, and only a break of 121070 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 128120 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during April. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
