:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | July 21, 2018
Analysis for the Week of July 23, 2018
THE ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 20, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 123110 so far is trading down about 5.97% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Jul. 19, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite weak.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 17% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 133770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 120390. This provides a 10% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 127690 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 123820. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 3.03%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 123110, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 7.96% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 124690. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 124690 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 124690 closing yesterday at 123110. We now need to close below 124690 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 122590.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 5 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0779%.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 131300 failed to exceed the previous high of 136940 made back during the week of April 9th. That rally amounted to onlythree typical reaction weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of May 21st and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 5 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2267 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2272 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 131300, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 128120, which formed during the week of May 21st, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 128120 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during April. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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