Replies to post #182662 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Umibe,

Thank you for your input. I hope that you are right and that some good mileage can be gotten out also from the unmethylated group. Until now I have been more impressed with the possibility that the MGMT methylated trial group is going to be the unchallenged success story but as you pointed out the typical difference for the unmethylated mOS of SOC (12 months) and the 19 months mOS of the blended unmeth group is substantial (7 months). I am somewhat worried that if mOS of the SOC for the unmeth group is above let.s say 14 months, that together with the benefit of DCVax-L at crossover may not be enough of a difference between the control and trial group. On the other hand having almost 50% of controls not cross over may help to maintain an SS between the unmeth trial and control group.

What I intend to do in the next few days is to review the various trials in the hope of getting a better handle on the different mOS and long term results (tail studies) so that I can more adequately estimate the possible outcome of the trial.

With regards to mesenchymal which you pointed out tends to be more often unmethylated, that would perhaps make TMZ less helpful for this group. However I am guessing that the high mutation rates of the mesenchymal tumor may be a plus by making DCVax-L more immunogenic.

[doingmybest]

Umibe5690,

Can you share any leads on where you saw that methylated is heterogenous and highly mutated like mesenchymal, I would be very interested in a better understanding of this point you have made repeatedly. Thx.


Also, I think the sole concern with unmethylated is the 3 year survival dropoff rate from the strong 2 year number. I think this shows there is a benefit but not a lasting one like methylated experiences.