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Replies to post #1600 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
07/21/18 8:37 AM
THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 20, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 155490 so far is trading down about 9.30% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Jul. 19, 2018. 0
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 14% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168200 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 151640. This provides a 9.84% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 9.04%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 155490, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 7.55% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2017. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 156350. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 159450 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 159450 closing yesterday at 155490. We now need to close below 159450 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 160150.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 30th at 160700, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have been generally trading down for the past 5 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1247%.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 173500 failed to exceed the previous high of 173600 made back during the week of April 16th. That rally amounted to onlysix weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of April 30th and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 5 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2868 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2873 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 173500, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 160700, which formed during the week of April 30th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 162800 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 3 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 6 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The previous monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 160700 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
