:::: NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | July 14, 2018
Analysis for the Week of July 16, 2018
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jul. 13, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 158150 so far is trading down about 7.75% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 4 days, while we have made a low at 157000 following the high established Mon. Jul. 9, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have since been in a bearish trend overall for 6 years. The correction since that high has been 72% with the next general key area to watch will be 109604 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168200 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 156500. This provides a 6.95% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 158150, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 5.97% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during December 2017. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 159450 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 159450 closing yesterday at 158150. We now need to close below 159450 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 161900. To date, this decline has been down forfour daily sessions.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 30th at 160700, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0951%.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 173500 failed to exceed the previous high of 173600 made back during the week of April 16th. That rally amounted to onlysix weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of April 30th and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak creating an outside reversal, which is holding technical support at 159783. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 4 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 9 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and only a break of 160700 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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