Replies to post #178046 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Lykiri]

News from NICE:

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/indevelopment/gid-ta10143
Timeline
Key events during the development of the guidance:
Date Update 14 June 2018 :Invitation to participate

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-ta10143/documents/final-scope
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-ta10143/documents/scope-consultation-comments-and-responses
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-ta10143/documents/equality-impact-assessment-scoping
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-ta10143/documents/final-matrix

[meirluc]

If all 44 patients who crossed the 36 months line were still alive at 3/17, how was the calculation made that 50% of the 44 will reach 88.2 months? If there were no deaths after 36 months I would guess that a 50% death rate for those 44 will not be reached for many more years.

[meirluc]

Lykiri, except for the question I just asked you, awesome work Thank you very much.

[flipper44]

Lykiri, thank you so much for this DD and the update at NICE. I kept checking that site for changes, but glad you found it first. Unfortunately, I'm probably off-line the rest of the evening (and perhaps tomorrow), unless i have insomnia, but I'll try to look at all of this excellent news very soon. I know other longs continue to hold the fort.

[abeta]

Lykiri

I cannot thank you enough for your effort in this.

I'm sure it was intense and a wonderful FEELING when you finished it
and reviewed your findings.

By way of introduction - every board has a DOPE - and OUCH
its yours truly .....

So please bear with me .....

The line below appears to be the home run line and I want to make
sure I understand it .....

-Calculation of that wonderful number: 108 – 28 – 36 =44

Please see the following - am I sort of in the vicinity of
of what you communicated in your line above.

Again - thank you very much for your efforts in this.

[eagle8]

Thank you for your great work and sharing with us Lykiri !


GLTU

[exwannabe]

-That means that every patient who ever crossed the month 36 timeline is still alive at the time of the analysis!

That is so obviously wrong I would have thought you would check your numbers.

We know for a fact that there are at least 2 events post 36 months on the K/M chart (else 88 mos for those could not be calculated). And just looking at the event rate (the steps down on the chart) make it obviously likely there are many more.

One obvious issue is that you assert any hash right of 18 months is a patient alive. No, it is possible for any hash mark to be LTFU. All we know is that those earlier than about 19 months would have to be LTFU.

If your hash counts are correct though it is useful. We can estimate the number of events post 3 years and then use that to estimate the total LTFU count.

[Evaluate]

you wrote:

I advise everyone to view the presentation of Dr. Marnix Bosch. (ASCO 2018) In my opinion, the last second of his presentation tells the whole story! https://www.nwbio.com/dcvax-personalized-dendritic-cell-vaccines/

Which part did you find to tell the whole story? When Dr Bosch thanked the patients in his last seconds of presentation? Or ... before that .... when he indicated that the timing for unblinding the trial would depend on the rate of events for the remaining patients?