IMO it will take nearly perfect RI results to silence those "fudgers". But we don't need that perfection to be successful.
I think that RI results can be categorized into 3 categories:
A) complete utter failure (I give it < .1% chance) - no positive risk reduction in PE, any SE or any subgroup = $.50
B) succesful in some or many ways, but enough wiggle room for fudgers to do their thing (I give it 50% chance) - this could be 30% RRR in PE but no significant improvement in CV death; or even miss on PE but show significant improvement in diabetics and/or heart attack, stroke, etc. = $2-$20
C) indisputable success (I give it 50% chance) - PE and all key SEs would need to be above 15% and probably above 20%. = $$$$$