ER consensus targs are only one piece of the puzzle. tariff impact def another piece. CNBC talking heads speculating tariff sales impact might be 50% of tax bonus. (take with grain of salt)
other factors include: multisector deregulation of pollution controls, oil/mining on public lands, banking, etc... all of which mean more money in corp pockets each qtr and more options for revenue for resource companies, banks, etc...
decrease in unemployment will eventually increase consumer tech spending near-term, ie: Q2/Q3. (long term, disposable income dropping)
etc...
re: besides those high levels are priced in
are they fully priced in? earlier post inlined below.
something to consider is the 23% tax cut EPS boost coming in Q2 ERs next month. in theory, much of that was priced into the market when the tax cut was first being discussed last summer into fall.
question is: how much remains to be realized once the EPS "surprises" start splashing next month?
stocks theoretically are driven by price/earnings ratios (PEs). so a 23% increase in pan-market earnings suggests a 23% increase in S&P index value. of course, that won't be perfect, both earnings mapping and due to many other parallel market factors in play. but worth calculating as a ballpark estimate.
if you set your baseline when the tax cut bill was introduced (nov 2, 2017), SPY was 255. 23% higher would be 313
if you start last aug before the tax cut bill was tangible, SPY was 245. 23% higher would be 301.
if you start with the SPY value going into the nov 2016 election, SPY was 210. 23% higher would be 258.
SPY retraced to 252 in the feb plunge closed at 258 yesterday. and closed at 265 today.
and that just the boost from the tax cut, alone, ignoring increases in growth, employment, and higher profits in many industries due to deregulation of pollution, banking, etc... since Trump took the helm.
nutshell, seems likely to me that, barring WW3 breaking out, we'll see new all-time-highs this summer.
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